Survey Methodology
Electoral Area: Chapainawabganj-1
Composition: 15 Unions & 1 Municipality
Timeline: June 15–28, 2025
Votes Surveyed: 2139
Sampling: We used stratified random sampling to select respondents from each union and municipality, ensuring alignment with the upazila's demographic composition—such as age groups, gender, and religion.
Sample Overview (N=2139)
The following charts break down the survey respondents by key demographics, alongside a table showing the sample distribution across the constituency's unions.
Union-wise Breakdown
| Union Name | Sample # | Sample % |
|---|---|---|
| Uzirpur | 54 | 2.5% |
| Kansat | 166 | 7.8% |
| Ghorapakhia | 76 | 3.6% |
| Chak Kirti | 125 | 5.8% |
| Satrujitpur | 79 | 3.7% |
| Daipukuria | 120 | 5.6% |
| Durlabhpur | 206 | 9.6% |
| Dhainagar | 118 | 5.5% |
| Naya Naobhanga | 150 | 7.0% |
| Panka | 49 | 2.3% |
| Binodpur | 121 | 5.7% |
| Manakosa | 170 | 7.9% |
| Mobarakpur | 123 | 5.8% |
| Shahbajpur | 201 | 9.4% |
| Shyampur | 150 | 7.0% |
| Municipality | 231 | 10.8% |
Political Landscape
A significant portion of the electorate identifies as 'floating voters,' who do not actively support a single party. This trend is particularly strong among Gen-Z voters.
Active vs. Floating Voters by Age
| Age Group | Floaters | Active | % Floaters |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16-25 (Gen-Z) | 342 | 158 | 68% |
| 26-35 | 430 | 243 | 64% |
| 36-45 | 322 | 162 | 67% |
| 46-55 | 152 | 130 | 54% |
| 56-65 | 94 | 64 | 59% |
| 65+ | 23 | 19 | 55% |
Party Preferences
While many voters are unaffiliated, the data shows a clear prediction for which party might win and which parties voters believe can best meet their expectations.
Do you actively support a party?
Which party will win here?
Which party can fill expectations?
Party Preference by Voter Segment
Candidate Preferences
Voter familiarity with candidates is high, though preferences vary significantly across different demographics. The bar chart below allows for a detailed look into which candidates resonate most with specific voter segments.
Know any MP candidates?
Which candidates have you heard about?
Candidate Preference by Voter Segment
Influence of Party Symbol
Party symbols (Marka) play a crucial role, though a significant number of voters prioritize the candidate over the party. The charts below explore this dynamic and the popularity of specific symbols.
Vote for Marka?
Which Marka?
Influence of Social Media
Social media influencers have a notable reach among voters. This section highlights the percentage of voters who follow influencers and identifies the most popular figures.